Ollama’s Release Cadence: No New Stable Version by 11-14-2026

The forecast

Ollama will not publish a new stable software release by 11-14-2026.

Background

Ollama’s most recent stable release, v0.40.13, appeared on the public GitHub feed on 10‑28‑2026 at 19:55:04 Z. The release has been available for just over a week. Historically, the project follows a pattern where a new stable version is typically issued when the existing release has aged at least one week.

Forecast Method

The release‑cadence rule applied here is straightforward: if the last stable release is at least seven days old, the next one is expected within fourteen days. The rule uses the official publication timestamps on GitHub to determine the outcome. It does not comment on feature quality or future AI capabilities.

Prediction

Using that rule, the model predicts that no new stable release will appear by 14‑11‑2026. The window for a potential release would open after that date, but the forecast holds until 15‑11‑2026. This conclusion comes from the data snapshot taken on 01‑11‑2026.

Uncertainty

While the pattern has held for several iterations, software projects can change their release strategy for many reasons: shifting priorities, resource constraints, or a pivot in development focus. If Ollama decides to accelerate its cadence, the prediction could shift earlier. Conversely, a deliberate slowdown would extend the gap.

Bottom Line

Based on the current release history and the release‑cadence rule, stakeholders can expect that Ollama’s next stable version will not be available until after 14‑11‑2026. Observers should watch the GitHub releases page for any updates that might alter this timeline.

How this will be checked

The release-cadence rule predicts another stable release within 14 days when the latest release is at least a week old. GitHub's public release timestamps determine the outcome. This measures a software release, not the quality of an AI breakthrough.