Bets experiment

2026 NFL Week 10 Forecasts: Moneylines, Spreads and $10 Picks

By Daire Sullivan · 11-11-2026 01:01:04 EST

AI picks

14 NFL Week 10 games with one hypothetical $10 pick each, frozen before kickoff.

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Pick records

Hypothetical $10 record: 0 wins · 1 losses · 0 pushes · 13 pending. Realized net -$10.00; ROI -100.0% on $10 in settled non-push stakes. No actual wagers are recorded.

WSH at NYG

Daire Sullivan picksNew York Giants spread -2.5 (-110)

Frozen selection: New York Giants spread -2.5 (-110) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-12-2026 20:15:00 EST to 11-13-2026 02:15:00 EST.

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Result: Missed · observed value -3.0000

Final score: WSH 24, NYG 21. Frozen pick: New York Giants spread -2.5 (-110).

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NE at DET

Daire Sullivan picksDetroit Lions spread -2.5 (-120)

Frozen selection: Detroit Lions spread -2.5 (-120) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 09:30:00 EST to 11-15-2026 15:30:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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KC at ATL

Daire Sullivan picksKansas City Chiefs spread -3.5 (-102)

Frozen selection: Kansas City Chiefs spread -3.5 (-102) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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HOU at CLE

Daire Sullivan picksHouston Texans moneyline (-230)

Frozen selection: Houston Texans moneyline (-230) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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MIN at GB

Daire Sullivan picksGreen Bay Packers moneyline (-175)

Frozen selection: Green Bay Packers moneyline (-175) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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JAX at TEN

Daire Sullivan picksJacksonville Jaguars moneyline (-535)

Frozen selection: Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline (-535) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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MIA at IND

Daire Sullivan picksIndianapolis Colts spread -3.5 (-115)

Frozen selection: Indianapolis Colts spread -3.5 (-115) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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CAR at NO

Daire Sullivan picksNew Orleans Saints moneyline (-130)

Frozen selection: New Orleans Saints moneyline (-130) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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BUF at NYJ

Daire Sullivan picksBuffalo Bills moneyline (-410)

Frozen selection: Buffalo Bills moneyline (-410) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 13:00:00 EST to 11-15-2026 19:00:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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SEA at LV

Daire Sullivan picksSeattle Seahawks moneyline (-290)

Frozen selection: Seattle Seahawks moneyline (-290) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 16:05:00 EST to 11-15-2026 22:05:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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LAR at ARI

Daire Sullivan picksLos Angeles Rams moneyline (-425)

Frozen selection: Los Angeles Rams moneyline (-425) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 16:05:00 EST to 11-15-2026 22:05:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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SF at DAL

Daire Sullivan picksSan Francisco 49ers spread -3.5 (-115)

Frozen selection: San Francisco 49ers spread -3.5 (-115) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 16:25:00 EST to 11-15-2026 22:25:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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PIT at CIN

Daire Sullivan picksCincinnati Bengals moneyline (-180)

Frozen selection: Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (-180) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-15-2026 20:20:00 EST to 11-16-2026 02:20:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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LAC at BAL

Daire Sullivan picksBaltimore Ravens moneyline (-218)

Frozen selection: Baltimore Ravens moneyline (-218) · $10 hypothetical stake · recorded 11-11-2026 01:01:02 EST.

Outcome window: 11-16-2026 20:15:00 EST to 11-17-2026 02:15:00 EST.

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Outcome pending.

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NFL Week 10 picks

This is a research and entertainment experiment, not betting advice or a claim of profitable picks. These are hypothetical stakes; no actual bets were placed. The experimental win-likelihood estimate combines the no-vig moneyline probability with a small adjustment for each team's published record. It has not been calibrated or shown to beat the market. A likely winner is not necessarily a good value at its quoted price. All lines and selections below are frozen at publication; later changes require separate timestamped entries.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Kickoff: 11-12-2026 20:15 EST. Records: WSH 2-5-1; NYG 5-2-1.

Expected outright winner: New York Giants. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: NYG 58.6%; WSH 41.4%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: WSH +114; NYG -135. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: WSH +2.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return; NYG -2.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: New York Giants spread -2.5 (-110). If it covers: $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return. Its quoted odds imply a 52.4% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Odds snapshot: 11-11-2026 01:01 EST, DraftKings, via ESPN game data. Lines may change or be inaccurate; this is not an offer or a recommendation. The final score will decide the result without revising this pick.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 09:30 EST. Records: NE 5-4; DET 6-2.

Expected outright winner: Detroit Lions. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: DET 59.9%; NE 40.1%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: NE +130; DET -155. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: NE +2.5 (+100), $10.00 profit; $20.00 total return; DET -2.5 (-120), $8.33 profit; $18.33 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Detroit Lions spread -2.5 (-120). If it covers: $8.33 profit; $18.33 total return. Its quoted odds imply a 54.5% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: KC 6-2; ATL 3-6.

Expected outright winner: Kansas City Chiefs. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: ATL 34.4%; KC 65.6%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: KC -185; ATL +154. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: KC -3.5 (-102), $9.80 profit; $19.80 total return; ATL +3.5 (-118), $8.47 profit; $18.47 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Kansas City Chiefs spread -3.5 (-102). If it covers: $9.80 profit; $19.80 total return. Its quoted odds imply a 50.5% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: HOU 3-5; CLE 5-4.

Expected outright winner: Houston Texans. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: CLE 34.5%; HOU 65.5%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: HOU -230; CLE +190. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: HOU -4.5 (-115), $8.70 profit; $18.70 total return; CLE +4.5 (-105), $9.52 profit; $19.52 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Houston Texans moneyline (-230). Its quoted odds imply a 69.7% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: MIN 6-2; GB 6-3.

Expected outright winner: Green Bay Packers. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: GB 60.3%; MIN 39.7%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: MIN +145; GB -175. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: MIN +3.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return; GB -3.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Green Bay Packers moneyline (-175). Its quoted odds imply a 63.6% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: JAX 6-2; TEN 1-7.

Expected outright winner: Jacksonville Jaguars. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: TEN 14.2%; JAX 85.8%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: JAX -535; TEN +400. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: JAX -10.5 (-108), $9.26 profit; $19.26 total return; TEN +10.5 (-112), $8.93 profit; $18.93 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline (-535). Its quoted odds imply a 84.3% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: MIA 1-7; IND 2-7.

Expected outright winner: Indianapolis Colts. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: IND 63.9%; MIA 36.1%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: MIA +160; IND -192. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: MIA +3.5 (-105), $9.52 profit; $19.52 total return; IND -3.5 (-115), $8.70 profit; $18.70 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Indianapolis Colts spread -3.5 (-115). If it covers: $8.70 profit; $18.70 total return. Its quoted odds imply a 53.5% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: CAR 3-5; NO 3-5.

Expected outright winner: New Orleans Saints. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: NO 54.3%; CAR 45.7%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: CAR +110; NO -130. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: CAR +2.5 (-112), $8.93 profit; $18.93 total return; NO -2.5 (-108), $9.26 profit; $19.26 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: New Orleans Saints moneyline (-130). Its quoted odds imply a 56.5% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 13:00 EST. Records: BUF 7-1; NYJ 2-7.

Expected outright winner: Buffalo Bills. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: NYJ 17.6%; BUF 82.4%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: BUF -410; NYJ +320. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: BUF -8.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return; NYJ +8.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Buffalo Bills moneyline (-410). Its quoted odds imply a 80.4% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 16:05 EST. Records: SEA 5-4; LV 4-5.

Expected outright winner: Seattle Seahawks. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: LV 27.8%; SEA 72.2%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: SEA -290; LV +235. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: SEA -6.5 (-108), $9.26 profit; $19.26 total return; LV +6.5 (-112), $8.93 profit; $18.93 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Seattle Seahawks moneyline (-290). Its quoted odds imply a 74.4% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 16:05 EST. Records: LAR 5-4; ARI 3-6.

Expected outright winner: Los Angeles Rams. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: ARI 20.5%; LAR 79.5%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: LAR -425; ARI +330. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: LAR -9.5 (-112), $8.93 profit; $18.93 total return; ARI +9.5 (-108), $9.26 profit; $19.26 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Los Angeles Rams moneyline (-425). Its quoted odds imply a 81.0% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 16:25 EST. Records: SF 7-1; DAL 4-5.

Expected outright winner: San Francisco 49ers. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: DAL 32.1%; SF 67.9%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: SF -205; DAL +170. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: SF -3.5 (-115), $8.70 profit; $18.70 total return; DAL +3.5 (-105), $9.52 profit; $19.52 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: San Francisco 49ers spread -3.5 (-115). If it covers: $8.70 profit; $18.70 total return. Its quoted odds imply a 53.5% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Kickoff: 11-15-2026 20:20 EST. Records: PIT 6-2; CIN 6-2.

Expected outright winner: Cincinnati Bengals. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: CIN 61.6%; PIT 38.4%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: PIT +150; CIN -180. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: PIT +3.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return; CIN -3.5 (-110), $9.09 profit; $19.09 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (-180). Its quoted odds imply a 64.3% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

Kickoff: 11-16-2026 20:15 EST. Records: LAC 0-8; BAL 4-5.

Expected outright winner: Baltimore Ravens. Experimental win-likelihood estimate: BAL 69.3%; LAC 30.7%. This estimate is not calibrated.

Moneyline options: LAC +180; BAL -218. Spread options with hypothetical $10 win payouts: LAC +4.5 (-112), $8.93 profit; $18.93 total return; BAL -4.5 (-108), $9.26 profit; $19.26 total return. A spread push returns the $10 stake with $0 profit; a loss is -$10.

One frozen hypothetical $10 selection: Baltimore Ravens moneyline (-218). Its quoted odds imply a 68.6% break-even win rate before considering bookmaker margin. That is a price threshold, not proof of betting value.

Grading and record

Each selected pick is settled using its original quoted odds and the final score. A win earns $10 times 100 divided by negative odds' absolute value, or $10 times positive odds divided by 100. A loss is -$10. A push returns the stake with $0 net. The live record shows wins, losses, pushes, pending games, realized net profit or loss, and ROI against settled non-push stakes. Original picks are never rewritten.

Outcome notes

0 accurate, 1 missed, 0 push, 13 pending.

JATANIUM forecasts are research and entertainment, not guarantees or betting advice. Displayed odds and spreads are approximate and may be inaccurate or stale. Lottery drawings are random. Read the full disclaimer.